While repeat DUI offenders typically face jail time and permanent license revocation, first-time offenders can be ordered to pay more than $10,000 in fines and legal fees, and can face temporary license suspension. If you cause an accident while drunk and there are injuries or fatalities, the legal consequences are much more severe.
Legendary investor Mark Mobius, now the head of Mobius Capital Partners, has just put out a $10,000 price target for Bitcoin (BTC -1.70%). He's now convinced that Bitcoin will trade around its current level of $17,000 over the near term before plummeting as much as 40% in 2023. Bitcoin at $10,000 would bring the crypto back down to its October 2020 level, essentially wiping out all the Bitcoin wealth created in the past bull market.
Bitcoin Price Hits $10,000 For The First Time In 2020 Up 40% YTD
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Mobius, of course, is known as "the godfather of emerging markets" and is no stranger to risk. Over a 30-year career, he helped turn emerging markets into an asset class when he was at Franklin Templeton Investments, and he certainly knows what can happen in volatile, unproven, and unregulated markets. If Mobius is calling a $10,000 price target for Bitcoin, is it time to get out now before the bottom falls out?
Secondly, Mobius notes that Bitcoin has continued to break through technical support levels, showing potential weakness. Each time Bitcoin breaks through one of these levels, it makes it much easier to fall to the next support level. Back in May, for example, when Bitcoin was trading at $28,000, Mobius suggested it would fall to $20,000. Now that Bitcoin has broken through the $20,000 support level, it is testing the $16,000 support level. From there, it's anyone's guess, but $10,000 seems most likely since that is the price Bitcoin fell to before a record bull market rally.
Bitcoin has had the second-best January in a decade, and risk sentiment is turning bullish on the once-beleaguered coin. Starting 2023 at around $16,600, the bitcoin price has risen a dramatic 42% and now sits around $23,700 as of 2 February.
Before the early 2023 bull run, bitcoin was having a miserable time. This was due to several events, both crypto-specific and part of the broader macro backdrop. You can see the current BTC price on the chart below and its historical progress through 2022.
Moreover, there are ongoing fears that the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates will plunge the world into a recession. Our recession probability indicator remains over 80%. Bitcoin is yet to experience a serious global recession, but we expect one would limit any potential upside in price action. This is because during times of economic uncertainty and weak growth, investors may be more inclined to sell risky assets like bitcoin and seek safer investments such as government bonds.
However, to invest in cryptocurrency, we must first understand it. Crypto tokens are unlike any traditional asset class. And they are all different. Just because you understand bitcoin, does not mean you know how ethereum works. Our video on bitcoin fundamentals can help you understand how bitcoin prices fluctuate and how to assess trends in important bitcoin metrics.
On February 9th, 2011, BTC reached a value of USD$1.00 for the first time ever. A few months later, in June, the price of one Bitcoin hit $10, then $30 on Mt. Gox. This represented a 100x appreciation since the beginning of the year, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $0.30.
Bitcoin's record-breaking run pushed the cryptocurrency's market capitalization over $1 billion for the first time ever. It also attracted a lot of attention. In February of 2013, Coinbase reported selling more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $22.
The internet's first cryptocurrency also gained some notoriety after the People's Bank of China prohibited Chinese financial institutions from transacting in Bitcoins. This came in December 2013 and led to the shutdown of BTC China - at that time the world's largest Bitcoin exchanges - and a sudden drop in price.
$150 marked the local bottom for the year, though. In fact, January 2015 was the last time you could ever buy 1 BTC for $150. The price of Bitcoin topped $500 for the first time in over a year later in 2015.
This proved to be the final fakeout, though. From September to the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin rallied 185% to close at just under $29,000. This was more than $10,000 above the previous all time high set in 2017.
It really wasn't until Laszlo Hanyecz made the first Bitcoin trade for real goods (two Papa John's pizzas in exchange for 10,000 Bitcoins) that there was really even a price applied to Bitcoin at all.
The quarterly median sales price in Brooklyn declined year over year for the first time in two years but was still the third-highest on record. Bidding war market share rose to a new high, reaching nearly one-third of all closings as listing inventory declined annually for the second consecutive quarter.
In Manhattan, the market metric to focus on in 2022 was the surprising restraint of new supply coming into the market. Median sales price slipped year over year for the first time since the pandemic era began but was well above pre-pandemic levels. The rate of annual sales growth went negative for the second straight quarter. Listing inventory slipped quarterly but was on par with pre-pandemic levels despite the sales slowdown. Co-op median sales price decreased annually for the first time in seven quarters while condo sales fell sharply year over year but remained above pre-pandemic levels. All luxury price trend indicators expanded annually for the fifth straight quarter. Luxury listing inventory expanded annually for the second quarter but was sharply below pre-pandemic levels. The average price per square foot of new development sales edged higher year over year but was sharply below pre-pandemic levels. New development sales declined sharply from the year-ago surge but remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Northern Manhattan saw weaker price and sales trends at the end of 2022. For co-ops and condos, all price trend indicators declined annually and fell below pre-pandemic levels. Listing inventory declined year over year for the first time since the start of the pandemic era. For townhouses, all price trend indicators declined annually and fell below pre-pandemic levels. Townhouse listing inventory has been rising annually for two years.
In Northwest Queens, prices peaked from the prior month but continued to rise on a year over year basis. The number of new lease signings rose monthly for the first time in seven months as landlord concession market share declined year over year for the fifteenth consecutive month.
The median sales price in Brooklyn declined for the first time in eight quarters to the second-highest level. Bidding war market share rose to a new high, reaching nearly one-third of all closings. Listing inventory declined for the second quarter after rising annually for five quarters.
In Riverdale, which includes Fieldston, Hudson Hill, North Riverdale, and Spuyten Duyvil, the median sales price rose to a new high as sales slipped for the first time in nearly two years. Bidding war market share increased to the third highest on record, almost one in five sales, as listing inventory declined annually for the third time in four quarters.
Rental prices in Brooklyn appeared to peak in August, moving sideways in September for the first time in eleven months. The market share of bidding wars continued to account for one out of five new leases. Listing inventory expanded annually for the first time in eleven months.
The record-setting median rent streak in Manhattan ended in August as prices began to plateau. Median rent and median net effective rent were the second-highest on record, ending a record-setting streak that began in February. The vacancy rate edged higher month over month for the fourth straight month. New leases rose month over month for the sixth consecutive month. The market share of one-year leases exceeds 50% for the first time since February 2021. Landlord concession market share for new developments was more than double existing rentals. Non-doorman rentals, representing roughly half the market, did not reach a record rent, unlike the doorman rental market. The market share of bidding wars accounted for one out of five new leases. Luxury net effective median rent rose annually to a new high as concessions fell to the third-lowest level on record. Luxury listing inventory was essentially unchanged from the prior year and well below pre-pandemic levels.
Low listing inventory in Brooklyn continued to provide a firm base to sustain record price trends. Median sales price rose to a new record for the eighth time in nine quarters as listing inventory fell annually for the first time in six quarters. The number of sales rose year over year for the seventh consecutive quarter.
The median rent in Manhattan reached the $4,000 threshold for the first time as lease signings continue to rise. New leases expanded year over year for the third straight month while the vacancy rate remained under two percent for the sixth consecutive month. Doorman's net effective median rent reached a new high for the fifth consecutive month. Luxury price trend indicators all rose to the second-highest on record while their share of one-year leases rose to a new high, exceeding half of all new leases.
The net effective median rent in Manhattan rose to the highest on record but with a deceleration in the annual growth rate. The vacancy rate remained below two percent for the fourth consecutive month. New leasing volume surged from February but fell annually for the sixth successive month. Bidding wars accounted for one in five new lease signings. Doorman's net effective median rent surged yearly for the ninth straight month to the highest level on record. Non-doorman rent increased at a higher annual rate than doorman rent for the first time in fifteen months. Luxury price trend indicators rose to their third-highest levels on record and were well above pre-pandemic levels. Luxury listing inventory dropped to its lowest March level in six years of tracking. 2ff7e9595c
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